Monday, October 5, 2026

Germany (1972-1908) Why Did German Economic Growth Appear to "Take-off" in the Late Nineteenth Century?






Notes



REICH19 Covering Model






Wikipedia








 

Germany (1972-1908) Why Did Political Development and the Balance of Power Fail
















Notes




REICH19 Covering Model







 

Wikipedia

Thursday, September 17, 2026

World-System Germany Counterfactual (1800-1950) No WWI, Great Depression, Nazi Party or WWII




This Page is Under Construction but you can watch the video above until it is completed.





Notes



Wikipedia


Friday, May 8, 2026

World (1900-1950) British Climacteric or Growth and Collapse?

 


This Page is Under Construction.



Notes




UKL19 Measurement Model

Three component state variables of the UKL19 Model explain 100% of the Variation in the indicators: UK1 = (Overall Growth), UK2 = (XREAL+X-L-HOURS-U) Export-Employment Controller and UK3 = (X-XREAL-Q-N) Malthusian Export-Price Controller.

UKL19 Time Plot


Overall growth in the UKL19 model continued through the Nineteenth Century and may or may not have been approaching a steady state around 1900. The Export-Employment and Malthusian Export-Price Controllers hit a minimum just before 1860  (see the Boiler Plate for a discussion of Historical Growth Controllers).

UKL19 BAU Forecast



AIC Statistics




All the models estimated from the Maddison Data Set are unstable (see the Boiler Plate). The best short-term (year-to-year) model is linkage to Western Europe (WEL19 Model) . The best Attractor Model is linkage to the US (USL19 Model) The Random Walk (RW) and other models have overlapping AIC Confidence Intervals.

UKL19 BAU System Matrix


The model is unstable and is very close to a Random Walk (RW).

ChatGPT


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Germany (1972-1908) Why Did German Economic Growth Appear to "Take-off" in the Late Nineteenth Century?

Notes REICH19 Covering Model Wikipedia Historiography of the causes of World War I  Historians writing about the origins of  World War I  ha...