World (1900-1950) British Climacteric or Growth and Collapse?

 

Notes

UKL19 Measurement Model

Three component state variables of the UKL19 Model explain 100% of the Variation in the indicators: UK1 = (Overall Growth), UK2 = (XREAL+X-L-HOURS-U) Export-Employment Controller and UK3 = (X-XREAL-Q-N) Malthusian Export-Price Controller.

UKL19 Time Plot

Overall growth in the UKL19 model continued through the Nineteenth Century and may or may not have been approaching a steady state around 1900. The Export-Employment and Malthusian Export-Price Controllers hit a minimum just before 1860  (see the Boiler Plate for a discussion of Historical Growth Controllers).

UKL19 BAU Forecast

AIC Statistics

All the models estimated from the Maddison Data Set are unstable (see the Boiler Plate). The best short-term (year-to-year) model is linkage to Western Europe (WEL19 Model) . The best Attractor Model is linkage to the US (USL19 Model) The Random Walk (RW) and other models have overlapping AIC Confidence Intervals.

UKL19 BAU System Matrix

The model is unstable and is very close to a Random Walk (RW).

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