In an earlier post (here) I investigated whether Latin America, in the 19th Century, benefited from the Monroe Doctrine. As a Geopolitical Alliance, Latin America benefited slightly from US intervention up to the 1880s, but not after that. However, the Monroe Doctrine was designed to minimize European influence in Latin America. One way to operationalize "interference" is to ask how the LA_19_US_input model handled shocks compared to the LA_19_WE_input.
In the 19th Century, interference in Latin America from Western Europe, the UK and the US is best viewed as a Random Walk.
A one standard deviation shock LA Growth (LA1) had effects extending out over about a half decade (see the graphic above). However, the Western European shocks were initially negative, meaning that growth in Western Europe depressed Latin American Growth. All the effects are small compared to the size of the shock.
In fact, the AIC statistics above shows that Growth Shocks are best viewed as a Random Walk. For comparison, the three models are presented below.
Notes
LA_19_US_Input Model
LA_19_WE_Input Model
LA_19_UK_Input Model
LA_19_MM
US_19_MM
WE_19_MM
UK_19_MM
No comments:
Post a Comment